A method of evaluating perinatal mortality risk.

The risk of perinatal mortality is the resultant of a large number of biological and social influences. Age, parity, social class, height, and past obstetric history are only some of the factors that should be taken into account in assessing the risk for any particular woman. This raises a difficult problem. In several factors she may be below average in risk while in others she is above average. She may, for example, be in Social Class I, but be 38 years old and having her fourth child. How should her risk be compared with that of another woman who is in Social Class V but is 23 years old and having her third child? Assessing the risk for any case requires estimating the specific effect of each factor and weighing these together to arrive at an overall value. This paper reports the development of a multiple regression method for evaluating perinatal mortality risks and identifying cases most likely to benefit from intensive antenatal care or hospital delivery. The data used for this study was collected by the Perinatal Mortality Survey (Butler and Bonham, 1963). During one week in March, 1958, the Survey directed by Dr Neville Butler obtained information on 16,994 single births, some 98 per cent. of all births during the week. Perinatal deaths (defined to include the entire 4-week neonatal period) of babies born during March, April, and May were also recorded. The 7,117 survey deaths represent an estimated 94 per cent. of all deaths at risk.